It’s Rayner to the rescue but who will build Labour’s 1.3m homes?

 Jamila Robertson outlines why Labour’s plan of 5,000 apprentices won’t build 1.5 (or 1.3) million homes.

In the Spring Statement, Rachel Reeves acknowledged that she will no longer be able to meet the government’s manifesto pledge to build 1.5m homes by the end of this parliament, pointing to the OBR downgrading cumulative net additions to UK housing stock to 1.3m.

Nevertheless, Angela Rayner’s National Planning Policy Framework was the one bright spot in an otherwise bleak emergency Budget – with the OBR predicting planning reforms would yield 170,000 new homes, boosting growth by 0.2 per cent a year. 

But there’s an elephant in the room: we don’t have the skilled workforce to build these homes. To solve this, Labour has worked with the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) and the National House-Building Council (NHBC), who have invested £140m into developing the pipeline of construction workers. This will result in 32 ‘homebuilding skills hubs’ to “fast-track training to local areas that need more housing” and ultimately deliver 5,000 more construction apprentices a year. 

Yet, there are two problems. Firstly, the hubs aren’t scheduled to launch until 2028. Secondly, according to the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) chief executive, Tim Balcon: “Under the government’s homebuilding plans, up to an additional 152,000 workers will need to be found, and this doesn’t include the quarter of a million additional construction workers we need to meet all forecasted construction demand through to 2028”. While admirable, 5,000 apprentices by the end of this parliament will not plug a vacancy gap of 402,000 workers, or deliver 1.3-1.5m homes. 

One thing Labour’s plans do right is radically reduce the time it takes to train a construction apprentice, halving apprenticeships from 24-30 months to 12-18 months. In 2010 the average age in the industry was 45, rising to 50 by 2020. Based on current projections, over 20 per cent of the workforce will retire in the next decade. So, how can we plug this 402,000 worker gap? Welfare reform.

The total number of people on Universal Credit in January 2025 was 7.5m, the highest level since the introduction of Universal Credit in 2013. According to the January 2025 figures, we currently have 1.6m people on Universal Credit searching for work. In 2023, the Conservative government stipulated that benefit claimants who failed to find work for more than 18 months would have to undertake work experience placements. This should now go further. The government should reduce this to six months and insist that roles are taken up in industries like construction, where there are staff shortages and a lot of work. 

Read the full article here: https://www.cityam.com/its-rayner-to-the-rescue-but-who-will-build-labours-1-3m-homes/